Kristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FK
EN1X2 · Kristiansund BKModel behind market recent
Market
3.10
price
32.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.33
fair price
30.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.07
model fair price
48.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 30%model 48%
Model divergence +18.3 pts
Edge vs fair -7%
Confidence Medium
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Kristiansund BK
48%
Draw
26%
Sarpsborg FK
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 30% / 26% / 44%
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
Medium confidence · 61/100
Model prices Kristiansund BK 48% against the market’s fair 30% — a +18.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.793–1.267 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Kristiansund BK 35% · Sarpsborg FK 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund BK | 48.3% | 3.33 | 3.10 | -7% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 3.79 | 3.70 | -2.3% |
| Sarpsborg FK | 25.7% | 2.29 | 2.20 | -4.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.65 · Under: 2.18 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Kristiansund BK | Draw | Sarpsborg FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK) | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| LeoVegas | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.12 |
| Betway | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Sky Bet | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.88 | 3.70 | 2.20 |
| Paddy Power | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Smarkets | 2.98 | 3.30 | 2.14 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.16 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Betano (UK) | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Bet Victor | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.18 / 3.61 / 2.19 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Kristiansund BK — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Kristiansund BKFair line (devig) — Kristiansund BK
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Kristiansund BK
LLLWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Rosenborg | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-29 | A v Valerenga | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Viking | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | A v Lillestrom | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Molde | 0-1 | L |
Sarpsborg FK
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Eliteserien - Norway fixtures
Vålerenga v AalesundBodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FKHamKam v TromsoIK Start v RosenborgLillestrom v KFUMMolde v SK Brann
Frequently asked questions
When do Kristiansund BK play Sarpsborg FK?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 15:00 UK time in the Eliteserien - Norway.
What does the model expect for Kristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FK?
The statistical model prices Kristiansund BK at 48%, the draw at 26% and Sarpsborg FK at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Kristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FK?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.33 / 3.79 / 2.29 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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