Lillestrom v KFUM
EN1X2 · LillestromModel behind market recent
Market
1.73
price
57.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.80
fair price
55.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.07
model fair price
48.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 48%
Model divergence -7.2 pts
Edge vs fair -4%
Confidence High
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Lillestrom
48%
Draw
26%
KFUM
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 56% / 24% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
High confidence · 73/100
Model prices Lillestrom 48% against the market’s fair 56% — a -7.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.793–1.267 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Lillestrom 35% · KFUM 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 48.3% | 1.80 | 1.73 | -4% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 4.22 | 3.90 | -7.6% |
| KFUM | 25.7% | 4.83 | 4.60 | -4.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.70 · Under: 2.12 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Lillestrom | Draw | KFUM |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Betway | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.60 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Smarkets | 1.68 | 3.55 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.69 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Bet Victor | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Coral | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.71 / 4.00 / 4.58 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Lillestrom — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LillestromFair line (devig) — Lillestrom
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Lillestrom
WLLWLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Fredrikstad | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-25 | A v HamKam | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | H v Kristiansund | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Sandefjord | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Rosenborg | 0-2 | L |
KFUM
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Eliteserien - Norway fixtures
Vålerenga v AalesundBodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FKHamKam v TromsoIK Start v RosenborgKristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FKMolde v SK Brann
Frequently asked questions
When do Lillestrom play KFUM?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 15:00 UK time in the Eliteserien - Norway.
What does the model expect for Lillestrom v KFUM?
The statistical model prices Lillestrom at 48%, the draw at 26% and KFUM at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Lillestrom v KFUM?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.80 / 4.22 / 4.83 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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