Lillestrom v KFUM PREDICTION
EN Sat 18 Jul, 15:00 UK · in 4d1X2 · LillestromModel behind market recent
Market
1.73
price
57.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.80
fair price
55.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.07
model fair price
48.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 48%
Model divergence -7.2 pts
Edge vs fair -4%
Confidence High
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Lillestrom
48%
Draw
26%
KFUM
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 56% / 24% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
High confidence · 73/100
Model prices Lillestrom 48% against the market’s fair 56% — a -7.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.793–1.267 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Lillestrom 35% · KFUM 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Lillestrom play KFUM?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 15:00 UK time in the Eliteserien - Norway.
What does the model expect for Lillestrom v KFUM?
The statistical model prices Lillestrom at 48%, the draw at 26% and KFUM at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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