IK Start v Rosenborg
EN1X2 · IK StartModel behind market recent
Market
3.10
price
32.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.23
fair price
31.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.07
model fair price
48.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 31%model 48%
Model divergence +17.3 pts
Edge vs fair -3.9%
Confidence Medium
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IK Start
48%
Draw
26%
Rosenborg
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 31% / 27% / 42%
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
Medium confidence · 61/100
Model prices IK Start 48% against the market’s fair 31% — a +17.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.793–1.267 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IK Start 36% · Rosenborg 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IK Start | 48.3% | 3.23 | 3.10 | -3.9% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 3.73 | 3.60 | -3.5% |
| Rosenborg | 25.7% | 2.37 | 2.25 | -5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.70 · Under: 2.05 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | IK Start | Draw | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK) | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| LeoVegas | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Smarkets | 3.05 | 3.20 | 2.18 |
| Sky Bet | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.10 |
| Paddy Power | 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Coral | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Casumo | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.23 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.07 / 3.56 / 2.26 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IK Start — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IK StartFair line (devig) — IK Start
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IK Start
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Rosenborg
WDLLWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Kristiansund BK | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-29 | H v Bodo/Glimt | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-25 | A v KFUM Oslo | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Aalesund | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Lillestrom | 2-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Eliteserien - Norway fixtures
Vålerenga v AalesundBodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FKHamKam v TromsoLillestrom v KFUMKristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FKMolde v SK Brann
Frequently asked questions
When do IK Start play Rosenborg?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 15:00 UK time in the Eliteserien - Norway.
What does the model expect for IK Start v Rosenborg?
The statistical model prices IK Start at 48%, the draw at 26% and Rosenborg at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for IK Start v Rosenborg?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.23 / 3.73 / 2.37 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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