Molde v SK Brann
EN1X2 · MoldeModel behind market recent
Market
2.08
price
48.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.19
fair price
45.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.07
model fair price
48.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 46%model 48%
Model divergence +2.7 pts
Edge vs fair -5.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Molde
48%
Draw
26%
SK Brann
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 46% / 25% / 30%
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Molde 48% against the market’s fair 46% — a +2.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.793–1.267 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Molde 35% · SK Brann 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde | 48.3% | 2.19 | 2.08 | -5.2% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 4.03 | 3.80 | -5.8% |
| SK Brann | 25.7% | 3.38 | 3.25 | -3.8% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Molde | Draw | SK Brann |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfred (UK) | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Betway | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | 3.65 | 3.05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.95 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Smarkets | 2.02 | 3.35 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.06 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| Bet Victor | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.09 / 3.84 / 3.22 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Molde — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — MoldeFair line (devig) — Molde
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Molde
DWLWLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.25
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Aalesund | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-30 | H v Sandefjord | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-25 | A v Sarpsborg 08 | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Kristiansund | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Tromso | 0-2 | L |
SK Brann
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Eliteserien - Norway fixtures
Vålerenga v AalesundBodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FKHamKam v TromsoIK Start v RosenborgLillestrom v KFUMKristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FK
Frequently asked questions
When do Molde play SK Brann?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 17:00 UK time in the Eliteserien - Norway.
What does the model expect for Molde v SK Brann?
The statistical model prices Molde at 48%, the draw at 26% and SK Brann at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Molde v SK Brann?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.19 / 4.03 / 3.38 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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