Vålerenga v Aalesund 
PREDICTION
EN Thu 16 Jul, 18:00 UK · in 40h 13m1X2 · VålerengaModel behind market recent
Market
1.74
price
57.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.82
fair price
55.0%
fair prob
Our model
1.65
model fair price
60.7%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 55%model 61%
Model divergence +5.7 pts
Edge vs fair -4.3%
Confidence High
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Vålerenga
61%
Draw
22%
Aalesund
17%
market fair (devig · sharp): 55% / 22% / 23%
Expected goals (λ)
2.177 — 1.086
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
High confidence · 81/100
Model prices Vålerenga 61% against the market’s fair 55% — a +5.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 2.177–1.086 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Venue: Intility Arena, Oslo
Referee: D. Higraff
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Vålerenga 47% · Aalesund 12% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Vålerenga play Aalesund?
Kick-off is Thu 16 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Eliteserien - Norway.
What does the model expect for Vålerenga v Aalesund?
The statistical model prices Vålerenga at 61%, the draw at 22% and Aalesund at 17%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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