IFK Norrkoping v Sandvikens IF
1X2 · IFK NorrkopingModel behind market recent
Market
1.57
price
63.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.64
fair price
60.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.44
model fair price
40.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 61%model 41%
Model divergence -19.9 pts
Edge vs fair -4.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IFK Norrkoping
41%
Draw
36%
Sandvikens IF
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 61% / 21% / 18%
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 0-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices IFK Norrkoping 41% against the market’s fair 61% — a -19.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.04–0.714 (most likely 0-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IFK Norrkoping 20% · Sandvikens IF 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Norrkoping | 40.9% | 1.64 | 1.57 | -4.5% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 4.81 | 4.50 | -6.4% |
| Sandvikens IF | 23.0% | 5.43 | 5.50 | +1.2% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | IFK Norrkoping | Draw | Sandvikens IF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 1.50 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Paddy Power | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.44 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.50 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| LeoVegas | 1.50 | 4.15 | 4.75 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.55 | 4.35 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.56 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Casumo | 1.56 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.54 | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| Grosvenor | 1.56 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.54 / 4.49 / 5.09 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IFK Norrkoping — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IFK NorrkopingFair line (devig) — IFK Norrkoping
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IFK Norrkoping
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Sandvikens IF
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do IFK Norrkoping play Sandvikens IF?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 12:00 UK time in the Superettan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for IFK Norrkoping v Sandvikens IF?
The statistical model prices IFK Norrkoping at 41%, the draw at 36% and Sandvikens IF at 23%, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for IFK Norrkoping v Sandvikens IF?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.64 / 4.81 / 5.43 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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