Östersunds FK v Landskrona BoIS
1X2 · Östersunds FKModel behind market recent
Market
2.10
price
47.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.17
fair price
46.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.44
model fair price
40.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 46%model 41%
Model divergence -5.2 pts
Edge vs fair -3.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Östersunds FK
41%
Draw
36%
Landskrona BoIS
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 46% / 27% / 27%
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 0-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Östersunds FK 41% against the market’s fair 46% — a -5.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.04–0.714 (most likely 0-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Östersunds FK 20% · Landskrona BoIS 10% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Östersunds FK | 40.9% | 2.17 | 2.10 | -3.2% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 3.70 | 3.60 | -2.8% |
| Landskrona BoIS | 23.0% | 3.73 | 3.35 | -10.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.75 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Östersunds FK | Draw | Landskrona BoIS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Sky Bet | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| 888sport | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Grosvenor | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.35 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.98 | 3.35 | 3.25 |
| Casumo | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.35 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.35 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.04 / 3.48 / 3.51 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Östersunds FK — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Östersunds FKFair line (devig) — Östersunds FK
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Östersunds FK
LLLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.58 / 2.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Orebro SK | 2-4 | L |
| 2021-12-04 | H v Degerfors | 0-1 | L |
| 2021-11-28 | A v Goteborg | 0-4 | L |
| 2021-11-22 | H v Mjallby | 0-2 | L |
| 2021-11-07 | A v AIK | 0-3 | L |
Landskrona BoIS
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Falkenbergs FF | 2-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Superettan - Sweden fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Östersunds FK play Landskrona BoIS?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 14:00 UK time in the Superettan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Östersunds FK v Landskrona BoIS?
The statistical model prices Östersunds FK at 41%, the draw at 36% and Landskrona BoIS at 23%, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Östersunds FK v Landskrona BoIS?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.17 / 3.70 / 3.73 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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