IK Oddevold v Varbergs BoIS
1X2 · IK OddevoldModel behind market recent
Market
2.30
price
43.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.42
fair price
41.3%
fair prob
Our model
2.44
model fair price
40.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 41%model 41%
Model divergence -0.4 pts
Edge vs fair -5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IK Oddevold
41%
Draw
36%
Varbergs BoIS
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 41% / 27% / 32%
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 0-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices IK Oddevold 41% against the market’s fair 41% — a -0.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.04–0.714 (most likely 0-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IK Oddevold 20% · Varbergs BoIS 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IK Oddevold | 40.9% | 2.42 | 2.30 | -5% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 3.68 | 3.50 | -4.8% |
| Varbergs BoIS | 23.0% | 3.16 | 2.90 | -8.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.73 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | IK Oddevold | Draw | Varbergs BoIS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Sky Bet | 2.15 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| BoyleSports | 2.10 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| LeoVegas | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.18 | 3.30 | 2.85 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.23 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Casumo | 2.23 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Grosvenor | 2.23 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.28 / 3.46 / 2.98 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IK Oddevold — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IK OddevoldFair line (devig) — IK Oddevold
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IK Oddevold
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Varbergs BoIS
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Norrby IF | 4-2 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Superettan - Sweden fixtures
Östersunds FK v Landskrona BoISÖsters IF v IK BrageIFK Norrkoping v Sandvikens IFIFK Värnamo v Ljungskile SKNordic United FC v Örebro SKNorrby IF v GIF Sundsvall
Frequently asked questions
When do IK Oddevold play Varbergs BoIS?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 12:00 UK time in the Superettan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for IK Oddevold v Varbergs BoIS?
The statistical model prices IK Oddevold at 41%, the draw at 36% and Varbergs BoIS at 23%, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for IK Oddevold v Varbergs BoIS?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.42 / 3.68 / 3.16 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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