Norrby IF v GIF Sundsvall
1X2 · Norrby IFModel behind market recent
Market
1.98
price
50.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.06
fair price
48.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.44
model fair price
40.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 41%
Model divergence -7.6 pts
Edge vs fair -4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Norrby IF
41%
Draw
36%
GIF Sundsvall
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 27% / 25%
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 0-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Norrby IF 41% against the market’s fair 49% — a -7.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.04–0.714 (most likely 0-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Norrby IF 20% · GIF Sundsvall 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrby IF | 40.9% | 2.06 | 1.98 | -4% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 3.72 | 3.60 | -3.2% |
| GIF Sundsvall | 23.0% | 4.07 | 3.80 | -6.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 1.85 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Norrby IF | Draw | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Sky Bet | 1.80 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| 888sport | 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.85 | 3.35 | 3.65 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.98 | 3.35 | 3.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.94 | 3.30 | 3.45 |
| Casumo | 1.97 | 3.35 | 3.50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.97 | 3.35 | 3.50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.88 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.94 / 3.50 / 3.82 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Norrby IF — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Norrby IFFair line (devig) — Norrby IF
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Norrby IF
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 4
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Varbergs BoIS FC | 2-4 | L |
GIF Sundsvall
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Superettan - Sweden fixtures
IK Oddevold v Varbergs BoISÖstersunds FK v Landskrona BoISÖsters IF v IK BrageIFK Norrkoping v Sandvikens IFIFK Värnamo v Ljungskile SKNordic United FC v Örebro SK
Frequently asked questions
When do Norrby IF play GIF Sundsvall?
Kick-off is Mon 20 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Superettan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Norrby IF v GIF Sundsvall?
The statistical model prices Norrby IF at 41%, the draw at 36% and GIF Sundsvall at 23%, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Norrby IF v GIF Sundsvall?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.06 / 3.72 / 4.07 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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