Norrby IF v GIF Sundsvall PREDICTION
SS Mon 20 Jul, 18:00 UK · in 6d
1X2 · Norrby IFModel behind market recent
Market
1.98
price
50.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.06
fair price
48.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.44
model fair price
40.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 41%
Model divergence -7.6 pts
Edge vs fair -4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Norrby IF
41%
Draw
36%
GIF Sundsvall
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 27% / 25%
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 0-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Norrby IF 41% against the market’s fair 49% — a -7.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.04–0.714 (most likely 0-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Norrby IF 20% · GIF Sundsvall 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Norrby IF play GIF Sundsvall?
Kick-off is Mon 20 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Superettan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Norrby IF v GIF Sundsvall?
The statistical model prices Norrby IF at 41%, the draw at 36% and GIF Sundsvall at 23%, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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