Nordic United FC v Örebro SK
1X2 · Nordic United FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.86
price
53.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.92
fair price
52.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.44
model fair price
40.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 52%model 41%
Model divergence -11.1 pts
Edge vs fair -3.3%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Nordic United FC
41%
Draw
36%
Örebro SK
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 52% / 23% / 25%
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 0-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Nordic United FC 41% against the market’s fair 52% — a -11.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.04–0.714 (most likely 0-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Nordic United FC 20% · Örebro SK 10% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordic United FC | 40.9% | 1.92 | 1.86 | -3.3% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 4.29 | 3.80 | -11.5% |
| Örebro SK | 23.0% | 4.07 | 4.00 | -1.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.12 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Nordic United FC | Draw | Örebro SK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.75 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| Sky Bet | 1.73 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.73 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.80 | 3.65 | 3.65 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.83 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.82 | 3.35 | 4.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.75 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.86 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
| Casumo | 1.85 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.82 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Grosvenor | 1.85 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.80 / 4.01 / 3.80 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Nordic United FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Nordic United FCFair line (devig) — Nordic United FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Nordic United FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Örebro SK
WLDLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Ostersunds FK | 4-2 | W |
| 2021-12-04 | H v Elfsborg | 2-3 | L |
| 2021-11-29 | A v Mjallby | 0-0 | D |
| 2021-11-22 | H v Kalmar | 1-2 | L |
| 2021-11-07 | A v Hammarby | 2-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Superettan - Sweden fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Nordic United FC play Örebro SK?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 14:00 UK time in the Superettan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Nordic United FC v Örebro SK?
The statistical model prices Nordic United FC at 41%, the draw at 36% and Örebro SK at 23%, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Nordic United FC v Örebro SK?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.92 / 4.29 / 4.07 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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