IFK Värnamo v Ljungskile SK
1X2 · IFK VärnamoModel behind market recent
Market
2.70
price
37.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.92
fair price
34.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.44
model fair price
40.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 34%model 41%
Model divergence +6.7 pts
Edge vs fair -7.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IFK Värnamo
41%
Draw
36%
Ljungskile SK
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 34% / 28% / 38%
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 0-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices IFK Värnamo 41% against the market’s fair 34% — a +6.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.04–0.714 (most likely 0-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IFK Värnamo 20% · Ljungskile SK 10% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Värnamo | 40.9% | 2.92 | 2.70 | -7.7% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 3.64 | 3.60 | -1% |
| Ljungskile SK | 23.0% | 2.60 | 2.60 | -0.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.70 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | IFK Värnamo | Draw | Ljungskile SK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Sky Bet | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| 888sport | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| BoyleSports | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
| LeoVegas | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.35 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.68 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| Grosvenor | 2.43 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.43 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Casumo | 2.43 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.75 / 3.42 / 2.45 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IFK Värnamo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IFK VärnamoFair line (devig) — IFK Värnamo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IFK Värnamo
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | H v Naestved | 0-2 | L |
Ljungskile SK
LL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.5 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-11-09 | A v Gefle | 0-1 | L |
| 2014-11-06 | H v Gefle | 1-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do IFK Värnamo play Ljungskile SK?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 14:00 UK time in the Superettan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for IFK Värnamo v Ljungskile SK?
The statistical model prices IFK Värnamo at 41%, the draw at 36% and Ljungskile SK at 23%, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for IFK Värnamo v Ljungskile SK?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.92 / 3.64 / 2.60 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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