IFK Värnamo v Ljungskile SK PREDICTION
SS Sun 19 Jul, 14:00 UK · in 4d
1X2 · IFK VärnamoModel behind market recent
Market
2.70
price
37.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.92
fair price
34.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.44
model fair price
40.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 34%model 41%
Model divergence +6.7 pts
Edge vs fair -7.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IFK Värnamo
41%
Draw
36%
Ljungskile SK
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 34% / 28% / 38%
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 0-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices IFK Värnamo 41% against the market’s fair 34% — a +6.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.04–0.714 (most likely 0-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IFK Värnamo 20% · Ljungskile SK 10% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Superettan - Sweden fixtures
IK Oddevold v Varbergs BoISÖstersunds FK v Landskrona BoISÖsters IF v IK BrageIFK Norrkoping v Sandvikens IFNordic United FC v Örebro SKNorrby IF v GIF Sundsvall
Frequently asked questions
When do IFK Värnamo play Ljungskile SK?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 14:00 UK time in the Superettan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for IFK Värnamo v Ljungskile SK?
The statistical model prices IFK Värnamo at 41%, the draw at 36% and Ljungskile SK at 23%, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.