Östers IF v IK Brage
1X2 · Östers IFModel behind market recent
Market
2.14
price
46.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.25
fair price
44.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.44
model fair price
40.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 44%model 41%
Model divergence -3.5 pts
Edge vs fair -5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Östers IF
41%
Draw
36%
IK Brage
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 44% / 24% / 31%
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 0-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Östers IF 41% against the market’s fair 44% — a -3.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.04–0.714 (most likely 0-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Östers IF 20% · IK Brage 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Östers IF | 40.9% | 2.25 | 2.14 | -5% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 4.12 | 4.00 | -2.8% |
| IK Brage | 23.0% | 3.21 | 3.10 | -3.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.49 · Under: 2.50 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Östers IF | Draw | IK Brage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.05 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Sky Bet | 2.00 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.10 | 4.00 | 2.88 |
| 888sport | 2.10 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| BoyleSports | 1.95 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
| LeoVegas | 2.08 | 3.65 | 2.85 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.10 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.14 | 3.65 | 2.98 |
| Casumo | 2.04 | 3.65 | 3.10 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.04 | 3.65 | 3.10 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.98 | 3.60 | 3.05 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.12 / 3.87 / 3.02 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Östers IF — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Östers IFFair line (devig) — Östers IF
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Östers IF
DDDLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-11-03 | H v Djurgarden | 1-1 | D |
| 2013-10-28 | A v Norrkoping | 1-1 | D |
| 2013-10-20 | A v Goteborg | 0-0 | D |
| 2013-10-06 | H v Gefle | 1-4 | L |
| 2013-09-30 | A v AIK | 1-2 | L |
IK Brage
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Superettan - Sweden fixtures
IK Oddevold v Varbergs BoISÖstersunds FK v Landskrona BoISIFK Norrkoping v Sandvikens IFIFK Värnamo v Ljungskile SKNordic United FC v Örebro SKNorrby IF v GIF Sundsvall
Frequently asked questions
When do Östers IF play IK Brage?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 16:00 UK time in the Superettan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Östers IF v IK Brage?
The statistical model prices Östers IF at 41%, the draw at 36% and IK Brage at 23%, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Östers IF v IK Brage?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.25 / 4.12 / 3.21 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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