Östers IF v IK Brage PREDICTION
SS Sat 18 Jul, 16:00 UK · in 4d
1X2 · Östers IFModel behind market recent
Market
2.14
price
46.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.25
fair price
44.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.44
model fair price
40.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 44%model 41%
Model divergence -3.5 pts
Edge vs fair -5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Östers IF
41%
Draw
36%
IK Brage
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 44% / 24% / 31%
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 0-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Östers IF 41% against the market’s fair 44% — a -3.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.04–0.714 (most likely 0-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Östers IF 20% · IK Brage 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Östers IF play IK Brage?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 16:00 UK time in the Superettan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Östers IF v IK Brage?
The statistical model prices Östers IF at 41%, the draw at 36% and IK Brage at 23%, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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