IK Oddevold v Varbergs BoIS PREDICTION
SS Sat 18 Jul, 12:00 UK · in 3d
1X2 · IK OddevoldModel behind market recent
Market
2.30
price
43.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.42
fair price
41.3%
fair prob
Our model
2.44
model fair price
40.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 41%model 41%
Model divergence -0.4 pts
Edge vs fair -5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IK Oddevold
41%
Draw
36%
Varbergs BoIS
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 41% / 27% / 32%
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 0-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices IK Oddevold 41% against the market’s fair 41% — a -0.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.04–0.714 (most likely 0-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IK Oddevold 20% · Varbergs BoIS 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Superettan - Sweden fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do IK Oddevold play Varbergs BoIS?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 12:00 UK time in the Superettan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for IK Oddevold v Varbergs BoIS?
The statistical model prices IK Oddevold at 41%, the draw at 36% and Varbergs BoIS at 23%, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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