Jaro v FC Inter Turku
1X2 · JaroModel behind market recent
Market
6.00
price
16.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
6.33
fair price
15.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.34
model fair price
42.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 16%model 43%
Model divergence +27 pts
Edge vs fair -5.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Jaro
43%
Draw
29%
FC Inter Turku
29%
market fair (devig · sharp): 16% / 22% / 62%
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 1.193
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Jaro 43% against the market’s fair 16% — a +27 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.504–1.193 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Jaro 29% · FC Inter Turku 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaro | 42.8% | 6.33 | 6.00 | -5.2% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 4.46 | 4.20 | -5.9% |
| FC Inter Turku | 28.6% | 1.62 | 1.53 | -5.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Jaro | Draw | FC Inter Turku |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 6.00 | 4.10 | 1.46 |
| Virgin Bet | 6.00 | 4.10 | 1.46 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.50 | 4.20 | 1.52 |
| Betway | 5.25 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| Grosvenor | 6.00 | 4.10 | 1.47 |
| LeoVegas | 5.30 | 4.05 | 1.50 |
| Casumo | 6.00 | 4.10 | 1.47 |
| Betfred (UK) | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| Sky Bet | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.44 |
| Paddy Power | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.47 |
| 888sport | 5.50 | 3.90 | 1.53 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 5.98 / 4.21 / 1.53 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Jaro — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — JaroFair line (devig) — Jaro
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Jaro
LLWLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | H v HJK | 2-5 | L |
| 2026-05-31 | A v AC Oulu | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Mariehamn | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-20 | A v KuPS | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Gnistan | 0-5 | L |
FC Inter Turku
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Veikkausliiga - Finland fixtures
HJK Helsinki v VPS VaasaAC Oulu v IF GnistanSJK Seinäjoki v KuPS KuopioTPS Turku v Ilves TampereIFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti
Frequently asked questions
When do Jaro play FC Inter Turku?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 16:30 UK time in the Veikkausliiga - Finland.
What does the model expect for Jaro v FC Inter Turku?
The statistical model prices Jaro at 43%, the draw at 29% and FC Inter Turku at 29%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Jaro v FC Inter Turku?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 6.33 / 4.46 / 1.62 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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