IFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti
1X2 · IFK MariehamnModel behind market recent
Market
5.10
price
19.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
5.49
fair price
18.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.34
model fair price
42.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 18%model 43%
Model divergence +24.6 pts
Edge vs fair -7.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IFK Mariehamn
43%
Draw
29%
FC Lahti
29%
market fair (devig · sharp): 18% / 22% / 60%
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 1.193
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices IFK Mariehamn 43% against the market’s fair 18% — a +24.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.504–1.193 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IFK Mariehamn 28% · FC Lahti 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Mariehamn | 42.8% | 5.49 | 5.10 | -7.2% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 4.57 | 4.20 | -8% |
| FC Lahti | 28.6% | 1.67 | 1.58 | -5.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.70 · Under: 2.08 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | IFK Mariehamn | Draw | FC Lahti |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 4.70 | 4.05 | 1.57 |
| Grosvenor | 5.10 | 3.90 | 1.56 |
| LiveScore Bet | 5.00 | 3.85 | 1.55 |
| Virgin Bet | 5.00 | 3.85 | 1.55 |
| Casumo | 5.10 | 3.90 | 1.56 |
| Unibet (UK) | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.58 |
| Betway | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.53 |
| Betfred (UK) | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.57 |
| Paddy Power | 5.00 | 3.80 | 1.57 |
| Sky Bet | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.53 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.55 |
| 888sport | 4.80 | 3.90 | 1.57 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 5.19 / 4.32 / 1.58 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IFK Mariehamn — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IFK MariehamnFair line (devig) — IFK Mariehamn
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IFK Mariehamn
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
FC Lahti
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Veikkausliiga - Finland fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do IFK Mariehamn play FC Lahti?
Kick-off is Mon 20 Jul, 17:00 UK time in the Veikkausliiga - Finland.
What does the model expect for IFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti?
The statistical model prices IFK Mariehamn at 43%, the draw at 29% and FC Lahti at 29%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for IFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 5.49 / 4.57 / 1.67 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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