SJK Seinäjoki v KuPS Kuopio
1X2 · SJK SeinäjokiModel behind market recent
Market
3.25
price
30.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.27
fair price
30.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.33
model fair price
42.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 31%model 43%
Model divergence +12.3 pts
Edge vs fair -0.6%
Confidence Medium
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
SJK Seinäjoki
43%
Draw
26%
KuPS Kuopio
31%
market fair (devig · sharp): 31% / 25% / 45%
Expected goals (λ)
1.756 — 1.478
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
Medium confidence · 66/100
Model prices SJK Seinäjoki 43% against the market’s fair 31% — a +12.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.756–1.478 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): SJK Seinäjoki 32% · KuPS Kuopio 22% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJK Seinäjoki | 42.9% | 3.27 | 3.25 | -0.6% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 4.08 | 3.80 | -6.9% |
| KuPS Kuopio | 31.3% | 2.23 | 2.16 | -3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.63 · Under: 2.30 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | SJK Seinäjoki | Draw | KuPS Kuopio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.02 |
| Grosvenor | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.02 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| LeoVegas | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.02 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.08 |
| Betway | 2.90 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Paddy Power | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Sky Bet | 2.80 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| 888sport | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.11 / 3.89 / 2.12 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · SJK Seinäjoki — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — SJK SeinäjokiFair line (devig) — SJK Seinäjoki
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
SJK Seinäjoki
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
KuPS Kuopio
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 3
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | H v FK Vardar | 2-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Veikkausliiga - Finland fixtures
HJK Helsinki v VPS VaasaAC Oulu v IF GnistanJaro v FC Inter TurkuTPS Turku v Ilves TampereIFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti
Frequently asked questions
When do SJK Seinäjoki play KuPS Kuopio?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 15:00 UK time in the Veikkausliiga - Finland.
What does the model expect for SJK Seinäjoki v KuPS Kuopio?
The statistical model prices SJK Seinäjoki at 43%, the draw at 26% and KuPS Kuopio at 31%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for SJK Seinäjoki v KuPS Kuopio?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.27 / 4.08 / 2.23 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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