HJK Helsinki v VPS Vaasa
1X2 · HJK HelsinkiModel behind market recent
Market
1.99
price
50.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.04
fair price
49.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.34
model fair price
42.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 43%
Model divergence -6.2 pts
Edge vs fair -2.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
HJK Helsinki
43%
Draw
29%
VPS Vaasa
29%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 23% / 28%
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 1.193
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices HJK Helsinki 43% against the market’s fair 49% — a -6.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.504–1.193 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): HJK Helsinki 28% · VPS Vaasa 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HJK Helsinki | 42.8% | 2.04 | 1.99 | -2.5% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 4.33 | 3.95 | -8.8% |
| VPS Vaasa | 28.6% | 3.58 | 3.65 | +1.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.63 · Under: 2.30 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | HJK Helsinki | Draw | VPS Vaasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betway | 1.88 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.88 | 3.75 | 3.35 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.83 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Sky Bet | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.86 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.86 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| Casumo | 1.88 | 3.65 | 3.55 |
| Grosvenor | 1.88 | 3.65 | 3.55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| 888sport | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.30 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.94 / 4.11 / 3.41 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · HJK Helsinki — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — HJK HelsinkiFair line (devig) — HJK Helsinki
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
HJK Helsinki
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Lahti | 0-2 | L |
VPS Vaasa
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Veikkausliiga - Finland fixtures
AC Oulu v IF GnistanSJK Seinäjoki v KuPS KuopioJaro v FC Inter TurkuTPS Turku v Ilves TampereIFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti
Frequently asked questions
When do HJK Helsinki play VPS Vaasa?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 13:00 UK time in the Veikkausliiga - Finland.
What does the model expect for HJK Helsinki v VPS Vaasa?
The statistical model prices HJK Helsinki at 43%, the draw at 29% and VPS Vaasa at 29%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for HJK Helsinki v VPS Vaasa?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.04 / 4.33 / 3.58 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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