TPS Turku v Ilves Tampere
1X2 · TPS TurkuMarket discrepancy recent
Market
2.80
price
35.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.76
fair price
36.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.34
model fair price
42.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 36%model 43%
Model divergence +6.6 pts
Edge vs fair +1.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
TPS Turku
43%
Draw
29%
Ilves Tampere
29%
market fair (devig · sharp): 36% / 27% / 37%
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 1.193
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices TPS Turku 43% against the market’s fair 36% — a +6.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.504–1.193 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): TPS Turku 28% · Ilves Tampere 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPS Turku | 42.8% | 2.76 | 2.80 | +1.4% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 3.76 | 3.50 | -6.9% |
| Ilves Tampere | 28.6% | 2.69 | 2.45 | -8.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.10 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | TPS Turku | Draw | Ilves Tampere |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Grosvenor | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.28 |
| LeoVegas | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Casumo | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.28 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Betway | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Sky Bet | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Paddy Power | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| 888sport | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.63 / 3.58 / 2.56 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · TPS Turku — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — TPS TurkuFair line (devig) — TPS Turku
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
TPS Turku
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Ilves Tampere
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Veikkausliiga - Finland fixtures
HJK Helsinki v VPS VaasaAC Oulu v IF GnistanSJK Seinäjoki v KuPS KuopioJaro v FC Inter TurkuIFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti
Frequently asked questions
When do TPS Turku play Ilves Tampere?
Kick-off is Mon 20 Jul, 16:00 UK time in the Veikkausliiga - Finland.
What does the model expect for TPS Turku v Ilves Tampere?
The statistical model prices TPS Turku at 43%, the draw at 29% and Ilves Tampere at 29%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for TPS Turku v Ilves Tampere?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.76 / 3.76 / 2.69 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.