AC Oulu v IF Gnistan
1X2 · AC OuluModel behind market recent
Market
2.22
price
45.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.31
fair price
43.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.34
model fair price
42.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 43%model 43%
Model divergence -0.4 pts
Edge vs fair -4.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
AC Oulu
43%
Draw
29%
IF Gnistan
29%
market fair (devig · sharp): 43% / 26% / 31%
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 1.193
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices AC Oulu 43% against the market’s fair 43% — a -0.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.504–1.193 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): AC Oulu 29% · IF Gnistan 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu | 42.8% | 2.31 | 2.22 | -4.1% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 3.88 | 3.60 | -7.1% |
| IF Gnistan | 28.6% | 3.23 | 3.15 | -2.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.75 · Under: 1.98 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | AC Oulu | Draw | IF Gnistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.15 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.08 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Grosvenor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.15 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.08 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Paddy Power | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Sky Bet | 2.00 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| Betway | 2.10 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.20 / 3.69 / 3.07 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · AC Oulu — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — AC OuluFair line (devig) — AC Oulu
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
AC Oulu
LDWWWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Turku PS | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-06-13 | A v Inter Turku | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-05-31 | H v Jaro | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | A v SJK | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | H v TPS | 1-0 | W |
IF Gnistan
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Veikkausliiga - Finland fixtures
HJK Helsinki v VPS VaasaSJK Seinäjoki v KuPS KuopioJaro v FC Inter TurkuTPS Turku v Ilves TampereIFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti
Frequently asked questions
When do AC Oulu play IF Gnistan?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 15:00 UK time in the Veikkausliiga - Finland.
What does the model expect for AC Oulu v IF Gnistan?
The statistical model prices AC Oulu at 43%, the draw at 29% and IF Gnistan at 29%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for AC Oulu v IF Gnistan?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.31 / 3.88 / 3.23 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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