TPS Turku v Ilves Tampere PREDICTION
VF Mon 20 Jul, 16:00 UK · in 6d
1X2 · TPS TurkuMarket discrepancy recent
Market
2.80
price
35.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.76
fair price
36.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.34
model fair price
42.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 36%model 43%
Model divergence +6.6 pts
Edge vs fair +1.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
TPS Turku
43%
Draw
29%
Ilves Tampere
29%
market fair (devig · sharp): 36% / 27% / 37%
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 1.193
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices TPS Turku 43% against the market’s fair 36% — a +6.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.504–1.193 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): TPS Turku 28% · Ilves Tampere 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Veikkausliiga - Finland fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do TPS Turku play Ilves Tampere?
Kick-off is Mon 20 Jul, 16:00 UK time in the Veikkausliiga - Finland.
What does the model expect for TPS Turku v Ilves Tampere?
The statistical model prices TPS Turku at 43%, the draw at 29% and Ilves Tampere at 29%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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