IFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti PREDICTION
VF Mon 20 Jul, 17:00 UK · in 6d
1X2 · IFK MariehamnModel behind market recent
Market
5.10
price
19.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
5.49
fair price
18.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.34
model fair price
42.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 18%model 43%
Model divergence +24.6 pts
Edge vs fair -7.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IFK Mariehamn
43%
Draw
29%
FC Lahti
29%
market fair (devig · sharp): 18% / 22% / 60%
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 1.193
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices IFK Mariehamn 43% against the market’s fair 18% — a +24.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.504–1.193 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IFK Mariehamn 28% · FC Lahti 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Veikkausliiga - Finland fixtures
HJK Helsinki v VPS VaasaAC Oulu v IF GnistanSJK Seinäjoki v KuPS KuopioJaro v FC Inter TurkuTPS Turku v Ilves Tampere
Frequently asked questions
When do IFK Mariehamn play FC Lahti?
Kick-off is Mon 20 Jul, 17:00 UK time in the Veikkausliiga - Finland.
What does the model expect for IFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti?
The statistical model prices IFK Mariehamn at 43%, the draw at 29% and FC Lahti at 29%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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