Jeju United FC v Gangwon FC
1X2 · Jeju United FCModel behind market recent
Market
3.25
price
30.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
3.61
fair price
27.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 28%model 45%
Model divergence +17.3 pts
Edge vs fair -10%
4 books priced
Model · 1X2
Jeju United FC
45%
Draw
29%
Gangwon FC
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 28% / 31% / 42%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Jeju United FC 45% against the market’s fair 28% — a +17.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Jeju United FC 29% · Gangwon FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeju United FC | 45.0% | 3.61 | 3.25 | -10% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.28 | 2.95 | -10% |
| Gangwon FC | 26.1% | 2.39 | 2.15 | -10.1% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Jeju United FC | Draw | Gangwon FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 3.25 | 2.95 | 2.15 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.25 | 2.95 | 2.15 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.25 | 2.95 | 2.15 |
| Grosvenor | 3.25 | 2.95 | 2.15 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Jeju United FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Jeju United FCFair line (devig) — Jeju United FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Jeju United FC
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Daejeon Citizen | 0-0 | D |
Gangwon FC
LD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.5 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | A v Vietnam | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-07-12 | A v FC Seoul | 0-0 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More K League 1 fixtures
Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FCGangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FCIncheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai MotorsJeju United FC v Pohang SteelersBucheon FC 1995 v FC SeoulFC Anyang v Gwangju FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Jeju United FC play Gangwon FC?
Kick-off is Tue 21 Jul, 11:30 UK time in the K League 1.
What does the model expect for Jeju United FC v Gangwon FC?
The statistical model prices Jeju United FC at 45%, the draw at 29% and Gangwon FC at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Jeju United FC v Gangwon FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.61 / 3.28 / 2.39 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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