Kalmar FF v Malmo FF

AS Mon 20 Jul, 18:00 UK · in 6d Ask the analyst

1X2 · Kalmar FFIdentified edge recent

Market

2.85

price

35.1%

implied · incl. margin

Fair · devigged · sharp

2.71

fair price

36.9%

fair prob

Our model

2.23

model fair price

44.9%

model prob · D-C + ELO

market fair 37%model 45%

Model divergence +8 pts Edge vs fair +5.2% Confidence Medium 12 books priced

Model · 1X2

Kalmar FF

45%

Draw

28%

Malmo FF

28%

market fair (devig · sharp): 37% / 26% / 37%

Expected goals (λ)

1.627 — 1.24

Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1

Engine confidence

Medium confidence · 52/100

How this is calculated →

Model prices Kalmar FF 45% against the market’s fair 37% — a +8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.627–1.24 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.

Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Kalmar FF 31% · Malmo FF 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.

No grounded brief yet

Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.

Outcome	Model prob	Fair odds (sharp, devigged)	Best price	Edge vs fair
Kalmar FF	44.9%	2.71	2.85	+5.2%
Draw	27.5%	3.88	3.60	-7.1%
Malmo FF	27.7%	2.68	2.56	-4.5%

Totals (2.5 goals line)

Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.

Bookmaker board — who holds each price

Book	Kalmar FF	Draw	Malmo FF
LeoVegas	2.55	3.60	2.50
Betfred (UK)	2.50	3.50	2.50
Sky Bet	2.40	3.25	2.30
Paddy Power	2.50	3.50	2.40
Smarkets	2.60	3.50	2.50
Betfair	2.66	3.60	2.56
Betfair Sportsbook	2.55	3.60	2.45
William Hill	2.50	3.40	2.50
888sport	2.50	3.40	2.50
Grosvenor	2.85	3.55	2.28
Virgin Bet	2.70	3.35	2.17
LiveScore Bet	2.70	3.35	2.17

Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.

Sharp reference (raw): 2.56 / 3.66 / 2.53 — the line our fair odds devig from.

Odds movement

1X2 · Kalmar FF — best price vs devigged fair line

Best price — Kalmar FFFair line (devig) — Kalmar FF

Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.

Kalmar FF

Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%

Date	Match	Score
2026-07-12	A v Hammarby FF	0-2	L

Malmo FF

WWLLLL

Goals for/against (last 12): 2.17 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 25%

Date	Match	Score
2026-07-12	H v IFK Goteborg	4-0	W
2026-05-30	H v Halmstad	5-2	W
2026-05-24	H v Vasteras SK	2-3	L
2026-05-17	A v Hammarby	1-4	L
2026-05-10	A v Hacken	2-3	L

No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.

All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.

No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.

No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.

Prediction Odds & fair line Head-to-head Kalmar FF Malmo FF Allsvenskan - Sweden

More Allsvenskan - Sweden fixtures

IFK Goteborg v IF Brommapojkarna Mjällby AIF v Västerås SK AIK v GAIS Halmstads BK v BK Hacken Hammarby IF v Degerfors IF IF Elfsborg v IK Sirius

Frequently asked questions

When do Kalmar FF play Malmo FF?

Kick-off is Mon 20 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.

What does the model expect for Kalmar FF v Malmo FF?

The statistical model prices Kalmar FF at 45%, the draw at 28% and Malmo FF at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.

What are the fair odds for Kalmar FF v Malmo FF?

Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.71 / 3.88 / 2.68 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.

Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.

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