LA Galaxy v St. Louis City SC
MLS1X2 · LA GalaxyModel behind market recent
Market
1.95
price
51.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.09
fair price
47.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.02
model fair price
49.6%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 48%model 50%
Model divergence +1.7 pts
Edge vs fair -6.6%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
LA Galaxy
50%
Draw
26%
St. Louis City SC
24%
market fair (devig · consensus): 48% / 25% / 28%
Expected goals (λ)
1.78 — 1.196
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices LA Galaxy 50% against the market’s fair 48% — a +1.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.78–1.196 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): LA Galaxy 36% · St. Louis City SC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Galaxy | 49.6% | 2.09 | 1.95 | -6.6% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 4.07 | 3.80 | -6.5% |
| St. Louis City SC | 24.3% | 3.64 | 3.40 | -6.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | LA Galaxy | Draw | St. Louis City SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| Bet Victor | 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Smarkets | 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.15 |
| Coral | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · LA Galaxy — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LA GalaxyFair line (devig) — LA Galaxy
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
LA Galaxy
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
St. Louis City SC
WDWWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | H v Austin FC | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v DC United | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Los Angeles FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Colorado Rapids | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Austin FC | 0-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do LA Galaxy play St. Louis City SC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for LA Galaxy v St. Louis City SC?
The statistical model prices LA Galaxy at 50%, the draw at 26% and St. Louis City SC at 24%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for LA Galaxy v St. Louis City SC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.09 / 4.07 / 3.64 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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