Marseille v Paris Saint Germain — Ligue 1 - France prediction, odds and analysis
L1At a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
MarseillevParis Saint Germain
Sun 20 Sept, 19:45Marseille4.60Unibet (UK)
Draw4.50Betfred (UK)
Paris Saint Germain1.65888sport
Best captured price per outcome · 15 bookmakers · prices observed 15 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Kickoff weather: 23.9°C · rain 0 mm · wind 37.7 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LLLWLW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2 / 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 8% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | at Rennes (A) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-09-06 | vs Paris FC (H) | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-08-30 | at Monaco (A) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-08-21 | vs Strasbourg (H) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-08-14 | vs Atletico Madrid (H) | 1-2 | L |
WLWDDD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2.33 / 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | vs Slovan Bratislava (H) | 6-1 | W |
| 2026-09-04 | vs Monaco (H) | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-09-02 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt (H) | 5-1 | W |
| 2026-08-28 | at Lille (A) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-08-28 | at Lille OSC (A) | 2-2 | D |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 10 | 3 | 3 | +1 | LLW |
| Paris Saint Germain | 13 | 2 | 3 | -1 | LDD |
Marseille: 6 pts behind 1st · 3 pts above 18th
Paris Saint Germain: 7 pts behind 1st · 2 pts above 18th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
Partial: Not a verified complete table. expected table size not established for this competition — completeness unverified.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Marseille 0 wins0 drawsParis Saint Germain 6avg 2.8 goalsBTTS 17%Over 2.5 in 67%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-16 | Paris SG v Marseille | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Marseille v Paris SG | 0-3 | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-31 | Marseille v Paris SG | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-24 | Paris SG v Marseille | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-02-26 | Marseille v Paris SG | 0-3 | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-10-16 | Paris SG v Marseille | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Marseillesnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| L. Balerdi | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| G. Kondogbia | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| I. Paixao | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| Q. Timber | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| F. Moumbagna | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| T. Nnadi | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| L. Balerdi | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| G. Kondogbia | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| I. Paixao | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| Q. Timber | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| F. Moumbagna | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| T. Nnadi | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| L. Balerdi | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| I. Paixao | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| Q. Timber | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
Paris Saint Germainsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| O. Dembele | Missing Fixture | Rest |
| L. Digne | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| B. Barcola | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| N. Mendes | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| J. Neves | Missing Fixture | Illness |
| I. Mbaye | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| O. Dembele | Missing Fixture | Rest |
| L. Digne | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| B. Barcola | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| N. Mendes | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| J. Neves | Missing Fixture | Illness |
| I. Mbaye | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| O. Dembele | Missing Fixture | Rest |
| B. Barcola | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| N. Mendes | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 7 Sept, 07:03 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Ligue 1 - France fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Marseille play Paris Saint Germain?
Kick-off is Sun 20 Sept, 19:45 UK time in the Ligue 1 - France.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 15 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.