Ponte Preta v Goiás
1X2 · Ponte PretaModel behind market recent
Market
5.00
price
20.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
5.56
fair price
18.0%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 18%model 68%
Model divergence +49.8 pts
Edge vs fair -10%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Ponte Preta
68%
Draw
25%
Goiás
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 18% / 27% / 55%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Ponte Preta 68% against the market’s fair 18% — a +49.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 24.9°C · rain 0 mm · wind 12.8 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Ponte Preta 43% · Goiás 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | 67.8% | 5.56 | 5.00 | -10% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.69 | 3.50 | -5.1% |
| Goiás | 7.3% | 1.82 | 1.75 | -3.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.25 · Under: 1.71 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Ponte Preta | Draw | Goiás |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 4.40 | 3.25 | 1.64 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.40 | 3.25 | 1.64 |
| Casumo | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
| Grosvenor | 4.50 | 3.35 | 1.68 |
| Betfred (UK) | 4.60 | 3.25 | 1.70 |
| LeoVegas | 4.80 | 3.30 | 1.70 |
| Paddy Power | 4.75 | 3.40 | 1.70 |
| Smarkets | 4.40 | 3.00 | 1.64 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.00 | 3.25 | 1.73 |
| Bet Victor | 4.60 | 3.30 | 1.70 |
| Betano (UK) | 4.60 | 3.30 | 1.70 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 5.25 / 3.48 / 1.72 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Ponte Preta — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Ponte PretaFair line (devig) — Ponte Preta
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Ponte Preta
LLLWDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-03 | A v Vasco | 1-2 | L |
| 2017-11-26 | H v Vitoria | 2-3 | L |
| 2017-11-20 | A v Fluminense | 0-2 | L |
| 2017-11-15 | H v Athletico-PR | 2-1 | W |
| 2017-11-12 | A v Coritiba | 1-1 | D |
Goiás
DWWLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v CRB | 2-2 | D |
| 2023-12-06 | H v América FC | 1-0 | W |
| 2023-12-06 | H v America MG | 1-0 | W |
| 2023-12-03 | A v Fortaleza EC | 0-1 | L |
| 2023-11-30 | A v Grêmio FBPA | 1-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-09-16 | Goias v Ponte Preta | 1-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2015-06-14 | Ponte Preta v Goias | 0-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2013-11-13 | Goias v Ponte Preta | 2-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2013-08-18 | Ponte Preta v Goias | 0-1 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série B fixtures
Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PEAmérica Mineiro v CearáSão Bernardo v AvaiJuventude v CuiabáLondrina v BotafogoFortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino
Frequently asked questions
When do Ponte Preta play Goiás?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Ponte Preta v Goiás?
The statistical model prices Ponte Preta at 68%, the draw at 25% and Goiás at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Ponte Preta v Goiás?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 5.56 / 3.69 / 1.82 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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