Ponte Preta v Goiás PREDICTION
BSB Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK · in 4d
1X2 · Ponte PretaModel behind market recent
Market
5.00
price
20.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
5.56
fair price
18.0%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 18%model 68%
Model divergence +49.8 pts
Edge vs fair -10%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Ponte Preta
68%
Draw
25%
Goiás
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 18% / 27% / 55%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Ponte Preta 68% against the market’s fair 18% — a +49.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 24.9°C · rain 0 mm · wind 12.8 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Ponte Preta 43% · Goiás 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série B fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Ponte Preta play Goiás?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Ponte Preta v Goiás?
The statistical model prices Ponte Preta at 68%, the draw at 25% and Goiás at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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