Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC
SLC1X2 · Chengdu Rongcheng FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.78
price
56.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.86
fair price
53.7%
fair prob
Our model
1.79
model fair price
55.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 54%model 56%
Model divergence +2.1 pts
Edge vs fair -4.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Qingdao West Coast FC
19%
Draw
26%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC
56%
market fair (devig · sharp): 23% / 24% / 54%
Expected goals (λ)
0.978 — 1.83
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Chengdu Rongcheng FC 56% against the market’s fair 54% — a +2.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 0.978–1.83 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Qingdao West Coast FC 11% · Chengdu Rongcheng FC 40% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao West Coast FC | 18.5% | 4.44 | 4.25 | -4.4% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 4.18 | 4.00 | -4.4% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC | 55.8% | 1.86 | 1.78 | -4.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.68 · Under: 2.20 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Qingdao West Coast FC | Draw | Chengdu Rongcheng FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfred (UK) | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
| 888sport | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Paddy Power | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.73 |
| Unibet (UK) | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.78 |
| LeoVegas | 3.95 | 3.75 | 1.72 |
| BoyleSports | 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Betano (UK) | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
| Bet Victor | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.70 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.70 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 4.20 / 3.96 / 1.76 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Chengdu Rongcheng FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Chengdu Rongcheng FCFair line (devig) — Chengdu Rongcheng FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Qingdao West Coast FC
DWDWDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | H v Shanghai Shenhua | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Yunnan Yukun | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-19 | H v Beijing Guoan | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-15 | A v Dalian Yingbo | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Wuhan Three Towns | 1-1 | D |
Chengdu Rongcheng FC
WLLWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 0.75
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | H v Shandong Taishan | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Dalian Yingbo | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-19 | H v Shanghai Port | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | A v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Henan Songshan Longmen | 3-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Chengdu Rongcheng v Qingdao West Coast | 5-1 | China Super League |
| 2025-10-26 | Qingdao West Coast v Chengdu Rongcheng | 2-2 | China Super League |
| 2025-05-17 | Chengdu Rongcheng v Qingdao West Coast | 1-1 | China Super League |
| 2024-10-27 | Qingdao West Coast v Chengdu Rongcheng | 1-1 | China Super League |
| 2024-05-26 | Chengdu Rongcheng v Qingdao West Coast | 7-0 | China Super League |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Qingdao West Coast FC
Chengdu Rongcheng FC
Super League - China
More Super League - China fixtures
Beijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FCHenan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FCYunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FCChongqing Tonglianglong FC v ZhejiangDalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FCShanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Qingdao West Coast FC play Chengdu Rongcheng FC?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 12:00 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC?
The statistical model prices Qingdao West Coast FC at 19%, the draw at 26% and Chengdu Rongcheng FC at 56%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 4.44 / 4.18 / 1.86 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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