RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV — Bundesliga - Germany prediction, odds and analysis
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Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
RB LeipzigvHamburger SV
Sun 13 Sept, 14:30RB Leipzig1.39Betfair
Draw5.80Betfair
Hamburger SV8.80Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 21 bookmakers · prices observed 7 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Red Bull Arena, LeipzigKickoff weather: 17.8°C · rain 0 mm · wind 10.8 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
WLLLLD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.83 / 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | vs 1. FC Nürnberg (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-09-10 | at Como (A) | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-09-10 | at Como 1907 (A) | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-09-05 | at Werder Bremen (A) | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-09-05 | at SV Werder Bremen (A) | 1-3 | L |
LLDLWW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.5 / 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 8% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | at Werder Bremen (A) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-09-06 | vs FSV Mainz 05 (H) | 0-5 | L |
| 2026-09-05 | vs RB Leipzig (H) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-08-29 | at Borussia Dortmund (A) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-08-24 | at Verl (A) | 3-0 | W |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 8 | 3 | 2 | +1 | LW |
| Hamburger SV | 18 | 0 | 2 | -7 | LL |
RB Leipzig: 3 pts behind 1st · 3 pts above 18th
Hamburger SV: 6 pts behind 1st · level on points with 18th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
RB Leipzig 2 wins1 drawHamburger SV 0avg 2.7 goalsBTTS 100%Over 2.5 in 67%
small sample — 3 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Hamburger SV v RB Leipzig | 1-1 | Frauen-Bundesliga |
| 2026-03-01 | Hamburger SV v RB Leipzig | 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-18 | RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
RB Leipzigsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| C. Baumgartner | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| O. Nyland | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| R. Reitz | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| Romulo Cardoso | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| B. Gruda | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| A. Ouedraogo | Missing Fixture | Shoulder Injury |
| V. Gebel | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| C. Baumgartner | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| O. Nyland | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| R. Reitz | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| Romulo Cardoso | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| B. Gruda | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| A. Ouedraogo | Missing Fixture | Shoulder Injury |
| V. Gebel | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| C. Baumgartner | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
Hamburger SVsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| M. Muheim | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| W. Omari | Missing Fixture | Personal Reasons |
| A. Rossing-Lelesiit | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| M. Muheim | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| W. Omari | Missing Fixture | Personal Reasons |
| A. Rossing-Lelesiit | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| M. Muheim | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| W. Omari | Missing Fixture | Personal Reasons |
| A. Rossing-Lelesiit | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| M. Muheim | Questionable | Muscle Injury |
| W. Omari | Missing Fixture | Personal Reasons |
| A. Rossing-Lelesiit | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| M. Muheim | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| W. Omari | Missing Fixture | Personal Reasons |
| A. Rossing-Lelesiit | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 12 Sept, 07:04 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Bundesliga - Germany fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do RB Leipzig play Hamburger SV?
Kick-off is Sun 13 Sept, 14:30 UK time in the Bundesliga - Germany.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 12 September at 08:04 UK time. · engine slate assembled 7 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.