Sheffield Wednesday v Bolton Wanderers
EFL1X2 · Sheffield WednesdayModel behind market recent
Market
3.40
price
29.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.68
fair price
27.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 27%model 47%
Model divergence +19.3 pts
Edge vs fair -7.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Sheffield Wednesday
47%
Draw
28%
Bolton Wanderers
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 27% / 28% / 45%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Sheffield Wednesday 47% against the market’s fair 27% — a +19.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sheffield Wednesday 31% · Bolton Wanderers 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday | 46.5% | 3.68 | 3.40 | -7.5% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.64 | 3.60 | -1% |
| Bolton Wanderers | 25.2% | 2.21 | 2.17 | -1.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 1.91 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Sheffield Wednesday | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.15 | 2.06 |
| Sky Bet | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| BoyleSports | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| LeoVegas | 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.02 |
| Grosvenor | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| Casumo | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| 888sport | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.44 / 3.41 / 2.07 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Sheffield Wednesday — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Sheffield WednesdayFair line (devig) — Sheffield Wednesday
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Sheffield Wednesday
LWDLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v West Brom | 0-3 | L |
| 2000-05-14 | H v Leicester | 4-0 | W |
| 2000-05-09 | A v Arsenal | 3-3 | D |
| 2000-05-06 | A v Coventry | 1-4 | L |
| 2000-04-30 | H v Leeds | 0-3 | L |
Bolton Wanderers
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More EFL Cup fixtures
Tranmere Rovers v RochdaleYork City v Crawley TownBristol City v WalsallWolverhampton Wanderers v Port ValeWycombe Wanderers v StevenageMiddlesbrough v Wrexham AFC
Frequently asked questions
When do Sheffield Wednesday play Bolton Wanderers?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Sheffield Wednesday v Bolton Wanderers?
The statistical model prices Sheffield Wednesday at 47%, the draw at 28% and Bolton Wanderers at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Sheffield Wednesday v Bolton Wanderers?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.68 / 3.64 / 2.21 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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