Swansea City v Birmingham City
EFL1X2 · Swansea CityModel behind market recent
Market
3.00
price
33.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.29
fair price
30.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 30%model 47%
Model divergence +16.1 pts
Edge vs fair -8.8%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Swansea City
47%
Draw
28%
Birmingham City
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 30% / 29% / 40%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Swansea City 47% against the market’s fair 30% — a +16.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Swansea City 31% · Birmingham City 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea City | 46.5% | 3.29 | 3.00 | -8.8% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.41 | 3.40 | -0.4% |
| Birmingham City | 25.2% | 2.48 | 2.30 | -7.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.95 · Under: 1.81 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Swansea City | Draw | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 2.92 | 2.30 |
| Sky Bet | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| BoyleSports | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| LeoVegas | 2.95 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Grosvenor | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.23 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.23 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.23 |
| Casumo | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| 888sport | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.09 / 3.21 / 2.33 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Swansea City — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Swansea CityFair line (devig) — Swansea City
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Swansea City
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Birmingham City
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Swansea City play Birmingham City?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Swansea City v Birmingham City?
The statistical model prices Swansea City at 47%, the draw at 28% and Birmingham City at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Swansea City v Birmingham City?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.29 / 3.41 / 2.48 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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