Toluca v Pumas
1X2 · TolucaModel behind market recent
Market
1.67
price
59.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.77
fair price
56.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 45%
Model divergence -11.1 pts
Edge vs fair -5.6%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Toluca
45%
Draw
28%
Pumas
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 56% / 24% / 20%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Toluca 45% against the market’s fair 56% — a -11.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Toluca 31% · Pumas 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 45.4% | 1.77 | 1.67 | -5.6% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 4.24 | 4.00 | -5.6% |
| Pumas | 26.4% | 5.03 | 4.75 | -5.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.60 · Under: 2.28 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Toluca | Draw | Pumas |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Smarkets | 1.59 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Casumo | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Grosvenor | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.58 | 3.95 | 4.60 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Toluca — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — TolucaFair line (devig) — Toluca
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Toluca
LLWLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | A v Pachuca | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-04 | H v Pachuca | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-26 | H v Club Leon | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | A v Mazatlan FC | 3-4 | L |
| 2026-04-19 | A v Club America | 1-2 | L |
Pumas
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Toluca play Pumas?
Kick-off is Wed 22 Jul, 04:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Toluca v Pumas?
The statistical model prices Toluca at 45%, the draw at 28% and Pumas at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Toluca v Pumas?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.77 / 4.24 / 5.03 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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