Wuhan Three Towns v Shenzhen Peng City FC
SLC1X2 · Wuhan Three TownsModel behind market recent
Market
2.08
price
48.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.22
fair price
45.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.18
model fair price
45.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 45%model 46%
Model divergence +0.7 pts
Edge vs fair -6.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Wuhan Three Towns
46%
Draw
27%
Shenzhen Peng City FC
27%
market fair (devig · sharp): 45% / 27% / 28%
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Wuhan Three Towns 46% against the market’s fair 45% — a +0.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.7–1.278 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Wuhan Three Towns 32% · Shenzhen Peng City FC 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Three Towns | 45.8% | 2.22 | 2.08 | -6.2% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 3.77 | 3.60 | -4.6% |
| Shenzhen Peng City FC | 27.4% | 3.52 | 3.30 | -6.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.74 · Under: 2.05 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Wuhan Three Towns | Draw | Shenzhen Peng City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | 3.45 | 3.15 |
| 888sport | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.08 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| BoyleSports | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.00 | 3.35 | 3.20 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.00 | 3.35 | 3.20 |
| Grosvenor | 2.06 | 3.45 | 3.30 |
| Betway | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.10 / 3.57 / 3.34 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Wuhan Three Towns — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Wuhan Three TownsFair line (devig) — Wuhan Three Towns
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Wuhan Three Towns
DDDDDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 2.17
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Yunnan Yukun | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Shandong Taishan | 3-3 | D |
| 2026-05-20 | A v Shanghai Shenhua | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Liaoning Tieren | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Qingdao West Coast | 1-1 | D |
Shenzhen Peng City FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Super League - China fixtures
Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FCBeijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FCHenan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FCYunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FCChongqing Tonglianglong FC v ZhejiangDalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Wuhan Three Towns play Shenzhen Peng City FC?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 13:00 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Wuhan Three Towns v Shenzhen Peng City FC?
The statistical model prices Wuhan Three Towns at 46%, the draw at 27% and Shenzhen Peng City FC at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Wuhan Three Towns v Shenzhen Peng City FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.22 / 3.77 / 3.52 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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