Wuhan Three Towns v Shenzhen Peng City FC PREDICTION
SLC Sat 18 Jul, 13:00 UK · in 3d1X2 · Wuhan Three TownsModel behind market recent
Market
2.08
price
48.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.22
fair price
45.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.18
model fair price
45.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 45%model 46%
Model divergence +0.7 pts
Edge vs fair -6.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Wuhan Three Towns
46%
Draw
27%
Shenzhen Peng City FC
27%
market fair (devig · sharp): 45% / 27% / 28%
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Wuhan Three Towns 46% against the market’s fair 45% — a +0.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.7–1.278 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Wuhan Three Towns 32% · Shenzhen Peng City FC 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Full match viewOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Wuhan Three Towns
Shenzhen Peng City FC
Super League - China
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Frequently asked questions
When do Wuhan Three Towns play Shenzhen Peng City FC?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 13:00 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Wuhan Three Towns v Shenzhen Peng City FC?
The statistical model prices Wuhan Three Towns at 46%, the draw at 27% and Shenzhen Peng City FC at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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