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Today's intelligence — model vs market on every fixture in the snapshot. Research, not instructions.
📅 Tuesday 14 July
Filtered: showing only Primera División - Argentina (15 fixtures)
· clear filter
Primera División - ArgentinaSat 25 Jul, 01:15
P Platense v Union Santa Fe USF
+1.2%
edge vs fair
32%
model probability
1X2 — Draw · best 2.90
value
Primera División - ArgentinaFri 24 Jul, 23:00
VSB Velez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba IDC
+1.1%
edge vs fair
25%
model probability
1X2 — Instituto de Córdoba · best 4.10
value
Primera División - ArgentinaFri 24 Jul, 23:00
RC Racing Club v Gimnasia La Plata GLP
+0.3%
edge vs fair
25%
model probability
1X2 — Gimnasia La Plata · best 5.25
value
Match intelligence
Platense v Union Santa Fe
Primera División - Argentina · Sat 25 Jul, 01:15 UK
Model lean — 1X2
Platense
43%
model probability — uncertainty included by design
3.01
fair odds
2.80
best price
-7%
edge vs fair
Model probabilities
Market (fair, devigged · sharp)
Engine score — process gate
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
λ (exp. goals): 1.31 — 0.945
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 10 pts
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 10 pts
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platense | 43.3% | 3.01 | 2.80 | -7% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 2.87 | 2.90 | +1.2% |
| Union Santa Fe | 25.2% | 3.13 | 2.87 | -8.4% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.87 / 2.73 / 2.99 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Platense
LLLDDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.5 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 8% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 8% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | H v Estudiantes L.P. | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-04-25 | H v San Lorenzo | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-20 | A v Central Cordoba | 3-4 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | H v Gimnasia Mendoza | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-02 | A v Lanus | 0-0 | D |
Union Santa Fe
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Engine score is a 0–100 process gate, not a certainty claim —
it ranks independent agreement (market shape, expected value, model, form). Channel selections appear as
FLAGGED; everything else is shown so you can judge what we didn't flag too.
Next up (12 of 15 — all matches →)
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model lean | Fair odds (1X2) | Best price (1X2) | Best edge | Engine score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos Juniors
Primera División - Argentina |
Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 | Sarmiento de Junin 43% | 4.61 / 3.12 / 2.16
sharp, devigged |
4.20 / 3.00 / 2.05 | -3.8% Draw |
— | |
| Belgrano de Cordoba v Rosario Central
Primera División - Argentina |
Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 | Belgrano de Cordoba 43% | 2.65 / 2.94 / 3.55
sharp, devigged |
2.45 / 2.90 / 3.10 | -1.3% Draw |
— | |
| Defensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata
Primera División - Argentina |
Fri 24 Jul, 01:45 | Defensa y Justicia 43% | 2.01 / 3.31 / 4.98
sharp, devigged |
1.91 / 3.20 / 4.75 | -3.5% Draw |
— | |
| Gimnasia Mendoza v Central Córdoba
Primera División - Argentina |
Fri 24 Jul, 20:45 | Gimnasia Mendoza 36% | 2.06 / 3.30 / 4.72
sharp, devigged |
2.00 / 3.00 / 4.50 | -2.9% Gimnasia Mendoza |
— | |
| Racing Club v Gimnasia La Plata
Primera División - Argentina |
Fri 24 Jul, 23:00 | Racing Club 43% | 1.91 / 3.51 / 5.24
sharp, devigged |
1.83 / 3.25 / 5.25 | +0.3% Gimnasia La Plata |
— | |
| Velez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba
Primera División - Argentina |
Fri 24 Jul, 23:00 | Velez Sarsfield BA 43% | 2.29 / 3.15 / 4.07
sharp, devigged |
2.05 / 3.05 / 4.10 | +1.1% Instituto de Córdoba |
— | |
| Atlético Huracán v Banfield
Primera División - Argentina |
Sat 25 Jul, 01:15 | Atlético Huracán 43% | 2.00 / 3.21 / 5.32
sharp, devigged |
1.91 / 3.05 / 4.80 | -4.6% Atlético Huracán |
— | |
| Platense v Union Santa Fe
Primera División - Argentina |
Sat 25 Jul, 01:15 | Platense 43% | 3.01 / 2.87 / 3.13
sharp, devigged |
2.80 / 2.90 / 2.87 | +1.2% Draw |
— | |
| Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v CA Tigre BA
Primera División - Argentina |
Sat 25 Jul, 18:45 | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 43% | 4.44 / 3.09 / 2.22
sharp, devigged |
4.20 / 2.90 / 2.10 | -5.2% CA Tigre BA |
— | |
| Newells Old Boys v Talleres
Primera División - Argentina |
Sat 25 Jul, 21:00 | Newells Old Boys 43% | 2.92 / 2.99 / 3.09
sharp, devigged |
2.75 / 2.90 / 2.80 | -3.3% Draw |
— | |
| River Plate v Barracas Central
Primera División - Argentina |
Sat 25 Jul, 23:15 | River Plate 67% | 1.56 / 4.20 / 8.33
sharp, devigged |
1.48 / 3.90 / 8.00 | -4.4% Barracas Central |
— | |
| Lanus v San Lorenzo
Primera División - Argentina |
Sun 26 Jul, 01:30 | Lanus 42% | 2.05 / 2.96 / 5.71
sharp, devigged |
1.95 / 2.95 / 5.00 | -0.3% Draw |
— |
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Market analysis
best price vs devigged fair line
| Market | Best | Fair | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 · Draw Platense v Union Santa Fe |
2.90 | 2.87 | +1.2% | value |
| 1X2 · Instituto de Córdoba Velez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba |
4.10 | 4.07 | +1.1% | value |
| 1X2 · Gimnasia La Plata Racing Club v Gimnasia La Plata |
5.25 | 5.24 | +0.3% | value |
| 1X2 · Draw Lanus v San Lorenzo |
2.95 | 2.96 | -0.3% | — |
| 1X2 · Draw Belgrano de Cordoba v Rosario Central |
2.90 | 2.94 | -1.3% | — |
| 1X2 · Gimnasia Mendoza Gimnasia Mendoza v Central Córdoba |
2.00 | 2.06 | -2.9% | — |
| 1X2 · Draw Newells Old Boys v Talleres |
2.90 | 2.99 | -3.3% | — |
Odds movement
1X2 · Platense — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — PlatenseFair line (devig) — Platense
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Closing-line value
the number we judge ourselves on
-0.25%
avg CLV · 53 flags
8/20
last 20 beat the close
Alerts
flags posted & closings captured — sign in for alerts
Closing captured — América Mineiro to Win 2.02 → 2.18 (-7.3% CLV)
07-13 08:00
Closing captured — Both Teams to Score 1.70 → 1.65 (+3% CLV)
07-12 10:00
Closing captured — Bodø/Glimt to Win 1.57 → 1.53 (+2.6% CLV)
07-12 09:00
Closing captured — Rosenborg to Win 1.66 → 1.62 (+2.5% CLV)
07-12 08:00
Our intelligence, your context — the process behind every number
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A Dixon-Coles + ELO model rebuilt continuously from a growing archive of real results, blended with the market it is priced against.
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