Atletico Mineiro v Bahia
1X2 · Atletico MineiroModel behind market recent
Market
2.10
price
47.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.21
fair price
45.2%
fair prob
Our model
1.68
model fair price
59.7%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 45%model 60%
Model divergence +14.5 pts
Edge vs fair -5.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Atletico Mineiro
60%
Draw
25%
Bahia
16%
market fair (devig · sharp): 45% / 28% / 26%
Expected goals (λ)
1.892 — 0.879
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Atletico Mineiro 60% against the market’s fair 45% — a +14.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.892–0.879 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 21.9°C · rain 0 mm · wind 3.5 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atletico Mineiro 43% · Bahia 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 59.7% | 2.21 | 2.10 | -5.1% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 3.51 | 3.55 | +1.2% |
| Bahia | 15.6% | 3.80 | 3.60 | -5.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.02 · Under: 1.85 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Atletico Mineiro | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coral | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Paddy Power | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| BoyleSports | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.55 | 3.60 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.45 |
| Grosvenor | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
| LeoVegas | 2.10 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.45 |
| Casumo | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.11 / 3.34 / 3.62 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atletico Mineiro — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atletico MineiroFair line (devig) — Atletico Mineiro
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atletico Mineiro
WLWDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Vasco | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Corinthians | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Mirassol | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Botafogo RJ | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Cruzeiro | 3-1 | W |
Bahia
LWLDLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.83
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Fluminense | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-30 | H v Botafogo RJ | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-26 | A v Coritiba | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Gremio | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Cruzeiro | 1-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-05 | Atletico-MG v Bahia | 3-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-07-13 | Bahia v Atletico-MG | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-09-15 | Bahia v Atletico-MG | 3-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-06-02 | Atletico-MG v Bahia | 1-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-12-07 | Bahia v Atletico-MG | 4-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-08-13 | Atletico-MG v Bahia | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioCoritiba v Palmeiras
Frequently asked questions
When do Atletico Mineiro play Bahia?
Kick-off is Tue 21 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Atletico Mineiro v Bahia?
The statistical model prices Atletico Mineiro at 60%, the draw at 25% and Bahia at 16%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Atletico Mineiro v Bahia?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.21 / 3.51 / 3.80 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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