Botafogo v Santos 
1X2 · BotafogoModel behind market recent
Market
2.08
price
48.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.14
fair price
46.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.04
model fair price
48.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 47%model 49%
Model divergence +2.1 pts
Edge vs fair -2.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Botafogo
49%
Draw
29%
Santos
22%
market fair (devig · sharp): 47% / 26% / 27%
Expected goals (λ)
1.546 — 0.978
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Botafogo 49% against the market’s fair 47% — a +2.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.546–0.978 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Kickoff weather: 20.4°C · rain 0 mm · wind 2.7 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Botafogo 32% · Santos 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 48.9% | 2.14 | 2.08 | -2.7% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 3.82 | 3.70 | -3.1% |
| Santos | 22.4% | 3.70 | 3.85 | +4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.88 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Botafogo | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| BoyleSports | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.06 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.89 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Grosvenor | 1.94 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.89 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Casumo | 1.94 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| 888sport | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.04 / 3.64 / 3.53 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Botafogo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — BotafogoFair line (devig) — Botafogo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
BotafogoNo archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
SantosWWLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.67
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Vitoria | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-30 | H v EC Vitória | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Grêmio FBPA | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Gremio | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Coritiba FBC | 0-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Vitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v BahiaCoritiba v Palmeiras
Frequently asked questions
When do Botafogo play Santos?
Kick-off is Thu 16 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Botafogo v Santos?
The statistical model prices Botafogo at 49%, the draw at 29% and Santos at 22%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Botafogo v Santos?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.14 / 3.82 / 3.70 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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