Mirassol v Grêmio
1X2 · MirassolMarket discrepancy recent
Market
2.08
price
48.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.07
fair price
48.3%
fair prob
Our model
1.85
model fair price
54.2%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 48%model 54%
Model divergence +5.9 pts
Edge vs fair +0.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Mirassol
54%
Draw
27%
Grêmio
19%
market fair (devig · sharp): 48% / 28% / 24%
Expected goals (λ)
1.74 — 0.959
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Mirassol 54% against the market’s fair 48% — a +5.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.74–0.959 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 21.2°C · rain 0 mm · wind 12.7 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Mirassol 37% · Grêmio 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 54.2% | 2.07 | 2.08 | +0.5% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 3.58 | 3.40 | -5.1% |
| Grêmio | 19.2% | 4.22 | 4.10 | -2.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.16 · Under: 1.74 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Mirassol | Draw | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Paddy Power | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 2.08 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.85 |
| Grosvenor | 1.92 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.98 | 3.35 | 3.80 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.85 |
| Casumo | 1.92 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.97 / 3.41 / 4.01 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Mirassol — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — MirassolFair line (devig) — Mirassol
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Mirassol
LLLWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | A v CA Paranaense | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-30 | A v Athletico-PR | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-26 | A v CA Lanús | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Fluminense FC | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Fluminense | 1-0 | W |
Grêmio
LWDLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | H v Corinthians | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Santos | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Bahia | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Flamengo RJ | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Athletico-PR | 0-0 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Gremio v Mirassol | 0-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-16 | Mirassol v Gremio | 4-1 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPAtletico Mineiro v BahiaCoritiba v Palmeiras
Frequently asked questions
When do Mirassol play Grêmio?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 00:00 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Mirassol v Grêmio?
The statistical model prices Mirassol at 54%, the draw at 27% and Grêmio at 19%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Mirassol v Grêmio?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.07 / 3.58 / 4.22 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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