Coritiba v Palmeiras
1X2 · PalmeirasModel behind market recent
Market
2.15
price
46.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.26
fair price
44.3%
fair prob
Our model
2.38
model fair price
42.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 44%model 42%
Model divergence -2.3 pts
Edge vs fair -4.8%
Confidence Medium
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Coritiba
28%
Draw
30%
Palmeiras
42%
market fair (devig · sharp): 27% / 29% / 44%
Expected goals (λ)
1.109 — 1.404
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
Medium confidence · 63/100
Model prices Palmeiras 42% against the market’s fair 44% — a -2.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.109–1.404 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 22.4°C · rain 0 mm · wind 12.4 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Coritiba 17% · Palmeiras 26% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 28.1% | 3.73 | 3.70 | -0.8% |
| Draw | 29.9% | 3.46 | 3.30 | -4.6% |
| Palmeiras | 42.0% | 2.26 | 2.15 | -4.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.17 · Under: 1.67 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Coritiba | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coral | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| Paddy Power | 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 3.60 | 3.25 | 2.05 |
| Sky Bet | 3.25 | 3.00 | 1.95 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.10 |
| Casumo | 3.70 | 3.30 | 2.04 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.55 | 3.20 | 1.97 |
| LeoVegas | 3.35 | 3.15 | 2.10 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.55 | 3.20 | 1.97 |
| Grosvenor | 3.70 | 3.30 | 2.04 |
| BoyleSports | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
| Smarkets | 2.30 | 2.46 | 1.95 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.55 / 3.30 / 2.15 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Palmeiras — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — PalmeirasFair line (devig) — Palmeiras
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Coritiba
LWWDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | A v Flamengo RJ | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-26 | H v Bahia | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Santos | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Internacional | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Vitoria | 1-4 | L |
Palmeiras
WWDDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 0.5
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Chapecoense-SC | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Flamengo RJ | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Cruzeiro | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Remo | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Santos | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-22 | Coritiba v Palmeiras | 0-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-06-04 | Palmeiras v Coritiba | 3-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2022-10-06 | Palmeiras v Coritiba | 4-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2022-06-12 | Coritiba v Palmeiras | 0-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2021-02-17 | Coritiba v Palmeiras | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2020-10-14 | Palmeiras v Coritiba | 1-3 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v Bahia
Frequently asked questions
When do Coritiba play Palmeiras?
Kick-off is Wed 22 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Coritiba v Palmeiras?
The statistical model prices Coritiba at 28%, the draw at 30% and Palmeiras at 42%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Coritiba v Palmeiras?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.73 / 3.46 / 2.26 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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