Fluminense v Bragantino-SP
1X2 · FluminenseModel behind market recent
Market
1.99
price
50.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.05
fair price
48.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.04
model fair price
48.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 49%
Model divergence +0.1 pts
Edge vs fair -2.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Fluminense
49%
Draw
29%
Bragantino-SP
22%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 29% / 23%
Expected goals (λ)
1.546 — 0.978
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Fluminense 49% against the market’s fair 49% — a +0.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.546–0.978 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 21°C · rain 0 mm · wind 7.4 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Fluminense 31% · Bragantino-SP 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 48.9% | 2.05 | 1.99 | -2.9% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 3.48 | 3.40 | -2.4% |
| Bragantino-SP | 22.4% | 4.44 | 4.40 | -1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.07 · Under: 1.75 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Fluminense | Draw | Bragantino-SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.94 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| Sky Bet | 1.85 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| BoyleSports | 1.83 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| Paddy Power | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.87 | 3.25 | 3.90 |
| Grosvenor | 1.93 | 3.35 | 4.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.93 | 3.35 | 3.95 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.87 | 3.25 | 3.90 |
| Casumo | 1.93 | 3.35 | 4.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.94 | 3.35 | 4.30 |
| 888sport | 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.90 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.95 / 3.32 / 4.24 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Fluminense — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FluminenseFair line (devig) — Fluminense
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Fluminense
WDWLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Bahia | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-06-01 | A v Cruzeiro | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-28 | H v Deportivo La Guaira FC | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Mirassol FC | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Mirassol | 0-1 | L |
Bragantino-SP
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v BahiaCoritiba v Palmeiras
Frequently asked questions
When do Fluminense play Bragantino-SP?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 00:00 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Fluminense v Bragantino-SP?
The statistical model prices Fluminense at 49%, the draw at 29% and Bragantino-SP at 22%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Fluminense v Bragantino-SP?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.05 / 3.48 / 4.44 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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