Bahia v Chapecoense
1X2 · BahiaModel behind market recent
Market
1.45
price
69.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.52
fair price
66.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.11
model fair price
47.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 66%model 47%
Model divergence -18.6 pts
Edge vs fair -4.3%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Bahia
47%
Draw
29%
Chapecoense
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 66% / 20% / 14%
Expected goals (λ)
1.492 — 0.982
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Bahia 47% against the market’s fair 66% — a -18.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.492–0.982 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 23.1°C · rain 0.2 mm · wind 19.2 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Bahia 31% · Chapecoense 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 47.4% | 1.52 | 1.45 | -4.3% |
| Draw | 29.3% | 5.13 | 5.00 | -2.5% |
| Chapecoense | 23.3% | 6.90 | 7.50 | +8.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.63 · Under: 2.44 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Bahia | Draw | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 1.34 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.42 | 4.80 | 6.30 |
| Casumo | 1.38 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| Coral | 1.44 | 4.80 | 6.50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.38 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.34 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.40 | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.36 | 4.33 | 5.75 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.44 / 4.87 / 6.57 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Bahia — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — BahiaFair line (devig) — Bahia
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Bahia
LWLDLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.83
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Fluminense | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-30 | H v Botafogo RJ | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-26 | A v Coritiba | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Gremio | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Cruzeiro | 1-2 | L |
Chapecoense
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v BahiaCoritiba v Palmeiras
Frequently asked questions
When do Bahia play Chapecoense?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Bahia v Chapecoense?
The statistical model prices Bahia at 47%, the draw at 29% and Chapecoense at 23%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Bahia v Chapecoense?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.52 / 5.13 / 6.90 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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