Bahia v Chapecoense PREDICTION
BSA Fri 17 Jul, 23:30 UK · in 3d
1X2 · BahiaModel behind market recent
Market
1.45
price
69.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.52
fair price
66.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.11
model fair price
47.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 66%model 47%
Model divergence -18.6 pts
Edge vs fair -4.3%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Bahia
47%
Draw
29%
Chapecoense
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 66% / 20% / 14%
Expected goals (λ)
1.492 — 0.982
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Bahia 47% against the market’s fair 66% — a -18.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.492–0.982 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 23.1°C · rain 0.2 mm · wind 19.2 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Bahia 31% · Chapecoense 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v BahiaCoritiba v Palmeiras
Frequently asked questions
When do Bahia play Chapecoense?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Bahia v Chapecoense?
The statistical model prices Bahia at 47%, the draw at 29% and Chapecoense at 23%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.