Vitoria v Vasco da Gama 
1X2 · VitoriaEfficiently priced recent
Market
2.42
price
41.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.43
fair price
41.1%
fair prob
Our model
1.95
model fair price
51.2%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 41%model 51%
Model divergence +10.1 pts
Edge vs fair -0.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Vitoria
51%
Draw
27%
Vasco da Gama
22%
market fair (devig · sharp): 41% / 29% / 30%
Expected goals (λ)
1.741 — 1.082
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Vitoria 51% against the market’s fair 41% — a +10.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.741–1.082 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Venue: Barradao, Salvador
Kickoff weather: 23.4°C · rain 0 mm · wind 22 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Vitoria 36% · Vasco da Gama 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 51.2% | 2.43 | 2.42 | -0.5% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 3.46 | 3.35 | -3.2% |
| Vasco da Gama | 22.1% | 3.34 | 3.40 | +1.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.06 · Under: 1.82 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Vitoria | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Sky Bet | 2.15 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| BoyleSports | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.42 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.23 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Grosvenor | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.23 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Casumo | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 888sport | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.32 / 3.30 / 3.19 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Vitoria — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — VitoriaFair line (devig) — Vitoria
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
VitoriaLWLLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Santos | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Internacional | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Bragantino | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | A v CD Nacional | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Casa Pia AC | 0-1 | L |
Vasco da GamaLLLWDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Atletico-MG | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-25 | H v Bragantino | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Internacional | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Athletico-PR | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Flamengo RJ | 2-2 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Vasco v Vitoria | 4-3 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-05-10 | Vitoria v Vasco | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-09-01 | Vitoria v Vasco | 0-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-05-12 | Vasco v Vitoria | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2018-09-09 | Vitoria v Vasco | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2018-05-13 | Vasco v Vitoria | 2-3 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v BahiaCoritiba v Palmeiras
Frequently asked questions
When do Vitoria play Vasco da Gama?
Kick-off is Thu 16 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Vitoria v Vasco da Gama?
The statistical model prices Vitoria at 51%, the draw at 27% and Vasco da Gama at 22%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Vitoria v Vasco da Gama?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.43 / 3.46 / 3.34 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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