Coritiba v Palmeiras PREDICTION
BSA Wed 22 Jul, 23:30 UK · in 8d
1X2 · PalmeirasModel behind market recent
Market
2.15
price
46.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.26
fair price
44.3%
fair prob
Our model
2.38
model fair price
42.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 44%model 42%
Model divergence -2.3 pts
Edge vs fair -4.8%
Confidence Medium
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Coritiba
28%
Draw
30%
Palmeiras
42%
market fair (devig · sharp): 27% / 29% / 44%
Expected goals (λ)
1.109 — 1.404
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
Medium confidence · 63/100
Model prices Palmeiras 42% against the market’s fair 44% — a -2.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.109–1.404 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 22.4°C · rain 0 mm · wind 12.4 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Coritiba 17% · Palmeiras 26% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v Bahia
Frequently asked questions
When do Coritiba play Palmeiras?
Kick-off is Wed 22 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Coritiba v Palmeiras?
The statistical model prices Coritiba at 28%, the draw at 30% and Palmeiras at 42%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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