Mirassol v Grêmio PREDICTION
BSA Sat 18 Jul, 00:00 UK · in 3d
1X2 · MirassolMarket discrepancy recent
Market
2.08
price
48.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.07
fair price
48.3%
fair prob
Our model
1.85
model fair price
54.2%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 48%model 54%
Model divergence +5.9 pts
Edge vs fair +0.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Mirassol
54%
Draw
27%
Grêmio
19%
market fair (devig · sharp): 48% / 28% / 24%
Expected goals (λ)
1.74 — 0.959
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Mirassol 54% against the market’s fair 48% — a +5.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.74–0.959 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 21.2°C · rain 0 mm · wind 12.7 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Mirassol 37% · Grêmio 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPAtletico Mineiro v BahiaCoritiba v Palmeiras
Frequently asked questions
When do Mirassol play Grêmio?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 00:00 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Mirassol v Grêmio?
The statistical model prices Mirassol at 54%, the draw at 27% and Grêmio at 19%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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