Atletico Mineiro v Bahia PREDICTION
BSA Tue 21 Jul, 23:30 UK · in 7d
1X2 · Atletico MineiroModel behind market recent
Market
2.10
price
47.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.21
fair price
45.2%
fair prob
Our model
1.68
model fair price
59.7%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 45%model 60%
Model divergence +14.5 pts
Edge vs fair -5.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Atletico Mineiro
60%
Draw
25%
Bahia
16%
market fair (devig · sharp): 45% / 28% / 26%
Expected goals (λ)
1.892 — 0.879
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Atletico Mineiro 60% against the market’s fair 45% — a +14.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.892–0.879 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 21.9°C · rain 0 mm · wind 3.5 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atletico Mineiro 43% · Bahia 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioCoritiba v Palmeiras
Frequently asked questions
When do Atletico Mineiro play Bahia?
Kick-off is Tue 21 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Atletico Mineiro v Bahia?
The statistical model prices Atletico Mineiro at 60%, the draw at 25% and Bahia at 16%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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